operational modeling

Operational infectious disease forecasting and scenario modeling for CDC-CFA and the Scenario Modeling Hubs.

Scenario Modeling Hubs

Multi-model scenario projections produced by the Scenario Modeling Hubs are used by the CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA) and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to inform vaccine policy and pandemic preparedness decisions.

I develop and maintain ACCIDDA’s operational models for the Flu and COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hubs and contribute to the computational infrastructure that supports multi-round scenario projections.

Flu Scenario Modeling Hub

Lead model developer for ACCIDDA’s influenza scenario projections.

  • 2025/26 operational round — leading scientific overhaul of the ACCIDDA flu model
  • 2024/25 operational round — initial model development and pipeline integration

Hub repository · Round results and reports

COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Data assimilation and modeling support for ACCIDDA’s COVID-19 projections.

  • 2025 health heterogeneities round — data cleaning, assimilation, and scenario analysis

Hub repository


Other Operational Work

Hib Vaccination Modeling (Navajo Nation)

Technical supervisor for an age- and immune-status-structured Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) model evaluating the impact of long-running vaccination programs in the Navajo Nation. Managing PhD students through model implementation, calibration, and policy analysis.


Infrastructure

This operational work runs on FlepiMoP2 and the OP Engine / OP System stack, with model specifications compiled from YAML into callable numerics and campaign orchestration handling batch scenario runs across locations and parameter sets.